A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
